The 2026 midterms are on Tuesday, November 3: all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. Kalshi and Polymarket both list markets on which party controls each chamber, on single races, and on combinations of the two. This guide doesn't say who will win. It's about keeping your own record straight, because election trading is unlike everyday trading in three ways: you hold many positions at once, they settle on very different schedules, and most of them move together.
Why election trades are hard to keep straight
- Many positions at once. House control, Senate control, a few Senate races, a governor or two, a turnout market: it adds up quickly, and across two platforms.
- Different settlement dates. Some markets pay out within days of the election; others are written to run into February 2027 (the table below).
- They move together. A strong night for one party lifts its House, Senate and race markets at the same time. Ten small positions on the same side can behave like one large one.
- Two platforms, different rules. The "same" question can be written differently on Kalshi and Polymarket, with different sources and deadlines.
- "Called" is not "settled". A race can be called on election night and still sit unpaid while the market waits for its own conditions.
When do election markets settle?
Each market's own rules decide this. Here is what the main ones say, as published on October 12, 2026:
| Market | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| House or Senate control | "May be determined early based on a consensus of media calls." Otherwise decided by the party of the Speaker (House) or the President pro tempore (Senate) on February 1, 2027. | House: the party that wins a majority of voting seats, from state election authorities, Congress and credible reporting. If independents' caucus choices are unclear, it can stay open until January 4, 2027. |
| A single race | Texas Senate, for example: decided by who is sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, with early settlement possible once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. | Minnesota Senate, for example: settles once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise on official certification. Runoffs count. |
In practice: a race called on election night can pay out within days. A close race, a recount or a runoff can hold your money for weeks. Control markets depend on the whole chamber, so they can take longest. Until a market settles, your money is still in it, even when it trades at 99¢. Before you trade, read the rules on the specific market page; they differ from market to market.
1The exchanges' own apps
Kalshi's and Polymarket's apps each show your open positions on that platform well, and they're the right place to place and check a trade. Neither shows the other platform, and neither groups your positions by when they'll settle.
Good for: one platform, right now. Misses: the whole picture across both, and what's still waiting to pay out.
2A spreadsheet
One row per position, with these columns:
| Column | Example |
|---|---|
| Market | Minnesota Senate |
| Platform | Polymarket |
| Side | Republican, Yes |
| Contracts | 40 |
| Price paid (per contract) | $0.15 |
| Paid in total | $6.00 |
| Pays if it wins | $40.00 |
| Settles by | Media consensus or certification (from the market's rules) |
| Status | Open → Called → Settled |
Then add one check that matters more in an election than anywhere else: total what you lose if each party has a bad night. Add up "paid in total" for every position that needs Republicans to do well, then the same for Democrats. If one number is most of your account, your positions are one trade in disguise.
Good for: full control. Misses: anything you forget to enter, and live prices; on election night it falls behind quickly.
3A tracker app
Kesin tracks Kalshi and Polymarket together (we make it, so weigh this section accordingly). For an election:
- Both platforms in one portfolio, with live prices and P&L, so you see your total position on the night, not two halves.
- A Resolving view that groups open positions by when their markets are expected to close. A position stays open until the exchange confirms it settled: an expected close date, or a media call, is not treated as a payout.
- Price alerts on markets you watch: when a price crosses a level you set, or moves sharply in 24 hours.
- A trade journal: write down why you took a position before the results come in, and check it once the market settles.
The honest fine print: Kesin's Polymarket support is for polymarket.com accounts, connected with a public wallet address. Polymarket US (polymarket.us) is a separate exchange with no wallet address: you can log its markets in Kesin (search, or paste a polymarket.us link), but those accounts can't connect for automatic sync yet. Kalshi connects with a read-only API key (Kesin refuses a key that can trade); you can disconnect at any time, which deletes it. A free account gets one sync and one import of finished bets per exchange; keeping them up to date is part of Premium; logging bets, the Resolving view and two price alerts are free. Kalshi's control markets list February 1, 2027 as their close date, so Resolving files them under that date until they settle, even if a media call settles them sooner.
Every election position, on both platforms, in one place.
Free on the App Store, with an optional Premium plan.
After election night
- List what's still open. Called races, uncalled races and control markets will settle at different times. Know which money is free and which is still waiting.
- Don't count a call as a payout. Your P&L is real once the market settles. Until then it's a price.
- Write down what you expected and what happened, before hindsight rewrites it.
- Look at results by kind of market. Control, single races and combinations often go very differently for the same person.
More guides
Sources
- Kalshi News, 2026 Midterm Elections: The races that will decide control of Congress (September 21, 2026): the date and the seats on the ballot.
- Kalshi market rules, as published October 12, 2026: House control, Senate control and Texas Senate.
- Polymarket market rules, as published October 12, 2026: Which party will win the House in 2026? and Minnesota Senate election winner.
- The spreadsheet example uses made-up numbers to show the arithmetic.